Norddeutsches Küsten- und Klimabüro
 
Kiel-Holtenau

Possible impact of future sea level rise on storm surges by 2100

Impact of MSL in RCP8.5 scenario If future greenhouse gas emission keeps high (like in RCP8.5):
  • a severe storm surge like in 1995 (cross) could occur about every 1.5 years at Kiel-Holtenau.
  • In the current climate, this storm surge occurs statistically about every 90 years at Kiel-Holtenau. A 90-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.65 meters at Kiel-Holtenau relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
  • A 200-year event, which is an important reference for coastal defense measures, may occur about every 2.4 years at Kiel-Holtenau in such a future climate.
  • A 200-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.75 meters at Kiel-Holtenau relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
Impact of MSL in RCP2.6 scenario If future greenhouse gas emisson will be significantly reduced (like in RCP2.6):
  • a severe storm surge like in 1995 (cross) may occur about every 7.4 years at Kiel-Holtenau.
  • In the current climate, this storm surge occurs statistically about every 90 years at Kiel-Holtenau. A 90-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.33 meters at Kiel-Holtenau relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
  • A 200-year event, which is an important reference for coastal defense measures, may occur about every 13 years at Kiel-Holtenau in such a future climate.
  • A 200-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.43 meters at Kiel-Holtenau relative to the mean of 1986-2005.