How much could sea level increase until 2100?
To answer this question for the global mean sea level (GMSL), we extrapolate the current sea level rise to 2100, assuming a linear and an accelerated future rise. This allows to estimate if and to what extent the actual sea level rise is consistent with the sea level projections of IPCC .
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- If GMSL continues to rise like in the last 100 years, it would increase about 20 cm by 2100 based on the linear extrapolation.
- Assuming a quadratic extrapolation, it could incease about 36 cm by 2100.
- According to IPCC , GMSL in 2100 is projected to be 43 cm (29-59 cm) under RCP2.6 and 84 cm (61-110 cm) under RCP8.5.
- Compared to the projections of GMSL in 2100 [IPCC, 2019], the linear extrapolation of the last 100-year sea level rise of GMSL is below the projected range of RCP2.6.
- The quadratic extrapolation of the last 100-year sea level rise of GMSL is within the lower half of the projected range of RCP2.6. Note: A high uncertainty range of the quadratic fit (large green area) indicates that it is currently not the best fit.
- According to the quadratic fit, there is a positive acceleration of sea level rise in the last 100 years.
- The last 23 consecutive overlapping 100-year periods show accelerating rates of sea level rise.
- In the last 22 consecutive overlapping 100-year periods, each acceleration was higher than in the previous period. *Note: Due to changing availablities of GMSL data, inhomogeneities in the arithmetic mean can not be excluded.