Norddeutsches Küsten- und Klimabüro
 
Flensburg

Possible impact of future sea level rise on storm surges by 2100

Impact of MSL in RCP8.5 scenario If future greenhouse gas emission keeps high (like in RCP8.5):
  • a severe storm surge like in 1995 (cross) could occur about every 0.7 years at Flensburg.
  • In the current climate, this storm surge occurs statistically about every 63 years at Flensburg. A 63-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.5 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
  • A 200-year event, which is an important reference for coastal defense measures, may occur about every 1.2 years at Flensburg in such a future climate.
  • A 200-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.62 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
Impact of MSL in RCP2.6 scenario If future greenhouse gas emisson will be significantly reduced (like in RCP2.6):
  • a severe storm surge like in 1995 (cross) may occur about every 3.8 years at Flensburg.
  • In the current climate, this storm surge occurs statistically about every 63 years at Flensburg. A 63-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.18 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.
  • A 200-year event, which is an important reference for coastal defense measures, may occur about every 8 years at Flensburg in such a future climate.
  • A 200-year event in such a future climate could reach a height of about 2.3 meters at Flensburg relative to the mean of 1986-2005.